← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, Apr 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 43% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 28% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Levante UD +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · Sevilla FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Levante UD |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jules Koundé · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafa Mir · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 171.00 |
| 1055.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1542.71 | 1783.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.96 | -32.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 29.23 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |