← Primera Division 2021-22 · Tue, Apr 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 20% | 23% | 5.02 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Abdón Prats · Mallorca |
| 24' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 57' | 🟨 | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Deportivo Alavés |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Antonio Raíllo · Deportivo Alavés |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · Deportivo Alavés |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| John Guidetti · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 49.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1556.76 | 1562.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.24 | -14.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 28.71 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |