← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 39% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 57% | 1.98 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 21' | ⚽ | Ivan Rakitić · Sevilla FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Anthony Martial · Sevilla FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Óliver Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1051.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1863.38 | 1967.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.67 | -6.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 60.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 30.21 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.80 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |