← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 17, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 41% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 30% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Dani Gómez · Levante UD |
| 35' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nemanja Radoja · Levante UD |
| 44' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 54' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 54' | 🟥 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 69' | 🟨 | Njegoš Petrović · Granada |
| 74' | 🟨 | Darwin Machís · Granada |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mickaël Malsa · Levante UD |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 🟨 |
| Dani Cárdenas · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alex Collado · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 16.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1596.64 | 1578.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.88 | 5.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 6.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 28.94 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |