← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 35% | 29% | 2.81 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 34% | 43% | 2.94 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 41% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |