← Primera Division 2021-22 · Fri, Apr 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 68% | 72% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.84 | fair |
| Granada win | 12% | 8% | 9.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Sevilla FC −1.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Darwin Machís · Granada |
| 32' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yan Eteki · Granada |
| 57' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rafa Mir · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafa Mir · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| ⚽ |
| Papu Gómez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1042.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1859.24 | 1600.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.24 | -15.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 57.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.45 | 28.98 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |