← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 48% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.14 | value: +20% |
| Mallorca win | 21% | 23% | 4.87 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 38% | 2.78 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Franco Russo · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Giovanni González · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Franco Russo · Mallorca |
| 63' | 🟥 | Franco Russo · Mallorca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Borja Mayoral · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 82' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 183.00 |
| 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1583.60 | 1524.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.07 | -39.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 14.67 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.52 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 25.40 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |