← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 48% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Granada win | 23% | 22% | 4.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| -5' | 🟥 | Aarón Escandell · Granada |
| 4' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Deportivo Alavés |
| 27' | 🟨 | Quini · Granada |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sergio Escudero · Granada |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 57' | ⚽ | Manu Vallejo · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟨 | Njegoš Petrović · Granada |
| 75' | ⚽ | Antonio Puertas |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 89' | 🟨 | Miguel de la Fuente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 108.00 |
| 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1514.15 | 1535.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.78 | -44.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.05 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.74 | 24.15 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |