← Primera Division 2021-22 · Fri, Mar 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 58% | 52% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.47 | value: +11% |
| Getafe CF win | 14% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Getafe CF −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Jakub Jankto · Getafe CF |
| 3' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · Getafe CF |
| 29' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 65' | 🟥 | Jorge Cuenca · Getafe CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 86' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Petxa · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 441.00 |
| 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1667.77 | 1579.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.85 | -20.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |