← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 39% | 46% | 2.61 | value: +21% |
| Athletic Club win | 32% | 25% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Athletic Club −0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 45% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +15% |
| Over | 48% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |