← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 44% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +3% |
| Valencia CF win | 24% | 28% | 4.14 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Costa · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 162.00 |
| 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1579.50 | 1642.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.72 | -4.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 27.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.20 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 23.86 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |