← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
| Mallorca win | 21% | 21% | 4.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Mallorca −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 54% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 6' | 🟨 | Fran Beltrán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 13' | ⚽ | Thiago Galhardo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 17' | ⚽ | Giovanni González · Mallorca |
| 25' | ⚽ | Denis Suárez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Joseph Aidoo · Mallorca |
| 61' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 71' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | 🟥 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ángel Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Battaglia · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 795.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1715.44 | 1574.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.90 | -4.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 26.01 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |