← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 68% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +8% |
| Elche CF win | 12% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Elche CF +1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +6% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Javier Pastore · Elche CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Antonio Barragán · Elche CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Elche CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · FC Barcelona |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Memphis Depay · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 125.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1553.83 | 1866.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.47 | 28.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 8.80 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.99 | 24.73 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |