← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 50% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 19% | 22% | 5.25 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 65% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟥 | Jorge Cuenca · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Deportivo Alavés |
| 43' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 49' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 72' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1653.44 | 1567.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.79 | -12.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 34.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 28.12 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |