← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Feb 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 17% | 23% | 5.95 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Levante UD −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Melero · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dani Cárdenas · Levante UD |
| 57' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 67' | ⚽ | Franco Cervi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 82' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 87' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge de Frutos · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 782.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1728.54 | 1549.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.56 | -4.76 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 31.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.29 | 5.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 28.67 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |