← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.62 | value: +7% |
| Granada win | 22% | 21% | 4.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Granada +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 33' | 🟨 | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 33' | 🟨 | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Serge Aurier · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Milla · Granada |
| 68' | 🟨 | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sergio Asenjo · Villarreal CF |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 🟨 |
| Raúl Torrente · Granada |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaut Danjuma · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 263.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1626.97 | 1819.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.35 | 11.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| league points | 24.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |