← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 18% | 20% | 5.53 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Barcelona +1 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Melamed · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Melamed · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicolás Melamed · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luuk de Jong · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 805.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1593.97 | 1837.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.45 | 18.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 27.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |