← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 41% | 39% | 2.43 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 30% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.30 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Barcelona −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Yannick Carrasco · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 10' | ⚽ | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 21' | ⚽ | Pablo Gavi · FC Barcelona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dani Alves · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 58' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 69' | 🟥 | Dani Alves · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 🟨 |
| Héctor Herrera · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 3720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1889.71 | 1879.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.81 | -13.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 13.80 | 14.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 27.03 |
| state index | 1.24 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |