← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 36% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +8% |
| Athletic Club win | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Athletic Club +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand