← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 82% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.25 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 6% | 7% | 19.00 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF −2 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Elche CF −2 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |