← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 68% | 72% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 11% | 10% | 9.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 54% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 14' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 25' | ⚽ | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 65' |
| 🟨 |
| Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaume Doménech · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ángel Correa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Hermoso · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 3705.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1813.08 | 1651.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.88 | -1.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 24.15 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -1.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |