← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 56% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.78 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 18% | 18% | 5.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Levante UD −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +4% |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 34' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 49' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 50' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 59' | 🟨 | Salvi · Cadiz |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jeremías Ledesma · Cadiz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Carlos Clerc · Levante UD |
| 73' | ⚽ | Salvi · Cadiz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aitor Fernández · Levante UD |
| 76' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 76' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Varazdat Haroyan · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 82.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1568.43 | 1541.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.06 | -0.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 29.57 | 28.50 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |