← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, Jan 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Granada win | 22% | 22% | 4.63 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 62% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 38% | 2.89 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Getafe CF |
| 13' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 29' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 32' | 🟨 | Raúl Torrente · Granada |
| 48' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 63' | ⚽ | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luis Milla · Granada |
| 70' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Getafe CF |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| ⚽ |
| Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1571.72 | 1614.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.71 | 31.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 11.11 | 12.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 24.15 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |