← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Jan 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.64 | value: +20% |
| Elche CF win | 19% | 20% | 5.15 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 40% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 60% | 2.05 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 14' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Keidi Bare · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 30' | 🟨 | Adrià Pedrosa · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 35' | 🟨 | Helibelton Palacios · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl de Tomás · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 49' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica · Elche CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Elche CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Raúl de Tomás · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1633.36 | 1519.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.88 | 9.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 8.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 30.69 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |