← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 5, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 46% | 49% | 2.13 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.11 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 23% | 24% | 4.31 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Elche CF −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.72 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Helibelton Palacios · Elche CF |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Elche CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Iván Marcone · Elche CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Varazdat Haroyan · Cadiz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Diego González · Elche CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tete Morente · Elche CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Carlos Akapo · Cadiz |
| 79' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| Gerard Gumbau · Elche CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Tete Morente · Elche CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josan · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 34.00 | 2074.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 4.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1514.00 | 1504.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.27 | 2.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 30.38 | — |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |