← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 65% | 73% | 1.48 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.43 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 12% | 9% | 8.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cadiz +1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +1.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.17 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |