← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 68% | 73% | 1.46 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
| Granada win | 12% | 14% | 8.50 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Granada +1.5 | 56% | 1.72 |
| Real Madrid CF +1.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |