← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 37% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 31% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 63% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · Getafe CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 31' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 38' | ⚽ | Sergi Gómez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 56' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jonathan Silva · Getafe CF |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| Adrià Pedrosa · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keidi Bare · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1579.03 | 1661.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.43 | 20.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| league points | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 4.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.27 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 26.15 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |