← Primera Division 2021-22 · Wed, Oct 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 52% | 48% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 19% | 24% | 5.25 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Mallorca +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 55% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 45% | 2.64 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Brian Oliván · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Russo · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 452.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1590.85 | 1810.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.40 | 7.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 28.58 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |