← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 24, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 65% | 71% | 1.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 12% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Levante UD −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Óliver Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Rafa Mir · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 38' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Melero · Levante UD |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fernando · Sevilla FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mickaël Malsa · Levante UD |
| 70' | 🟨 | Carlos Clerc · Levante UD |
| 78' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Fernando · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 876.00 | 1333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1870.25 | 1601.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.55 | -29.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.08 | 30.56 |
| state index | 1.31 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |