← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 61% | 62% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.09 | fair |
| Granada win | 15% | 15% | 6.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 69' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ángel Montoro · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Neva · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aarón Escandell · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Quini · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Denis Suárez · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| coach days | 696.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1622.65 | 1561.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.24 | -26.98 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 40.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 4.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.69 | 24.15 |
| state index | -0.09 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |