← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 59% | 67% | 1.63 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.88 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Cadiz −0.75 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.24 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 23' | ⚽ | Varazdat Haroyan · Cadiz |
| 44' | ⚽ | Radamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álvaro Bastida · Cadiz |
| 48' | 🟨 | Varazdat Haroyan · Cadiz |
| 50' | 🟨 | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 56' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Cadiz |
| 58' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 87' | ⚽ | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Perea · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 421.00 | 2004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1621.20 | 1588.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.85 | 7.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 58.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 25.80 |
| rest days | 4.85 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -3.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -2.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |