← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, Sep 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 48% | 50% | 2.07 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
| Granada win | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Granada |
| 50' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 52' | ⚽ | Aritz Elustondo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 64' | 🟨 | Santiago Arias · Granada |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Milla · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| 82' |
| ⚽ |
| Aritz Elustondo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 114.00 | 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1569.10 | 1707.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.19 | 20.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.70 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 2.94 | 4.14 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.15 | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |