← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 18, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 38% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Bebé · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 8' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 18' | 🟨 | Chema · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Esteban Saveljich · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 46' | 🟨 | Fran García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 78' | ⚽ | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 81' | ⚽ | Radamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 83' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Macías · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 413.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1577.96 | 1550.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.29 | -25.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 4.75 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |