← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, May 22, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 73% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.94 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 10% | 15% | 9.50 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid +1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 54% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marcos André · Valladolid |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ángel Correa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 67' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 68' | 🟨 | — · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 68' | 🟨 | — · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jawad El Yamiq · Valladolid |
| 74' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 78' | 🟨 | João Félix · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 78' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| 83' | 🟨 | Felipe · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 87' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1147.00 | 3460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1572.25 | 1915.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.73 | -0.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.84 |
| league points | 31.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.87 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |