← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, May 22, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 45% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 57% | 2.14 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Real Betis Balompié |
| 26' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Carlos Domínguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nolito · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 49' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 67' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Real Betis Balompié |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 70' | 🟥 | — · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Víctor Ruiz · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 76' | 🟨 | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 76' | 🟥 | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 78' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Real Betis Balompié |
| 89' | 🟨 | Claudio Bravo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Lainez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Augusto Solari · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 507.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1718.27 | 1717.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 68.46 | 16.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 53.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 28.60 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |