← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, May 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Granada win | 20% | 21% | 4.97 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Granada −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 49% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 51% | 2.46 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Pere Pons · Deportivo Alavés |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Granada |
| 21' | ⚽ | Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés |
| 30' | 🟨 | Yan Eteki · Granada |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Granada |
| 45' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 47' | 🟨 | Quini · Granada |
| 63' | ⚽ | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 66' | ⚽ | Joselu · Deportivo Alavés |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 🟨 |
| John Guidetti · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 45.00 | 1080.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1587.44 | 1658.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.06 | -15.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 4.94 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 29.15 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |