← Primera Division 2020-21 · Thu, May 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 70% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.46 | fair |
| Granada win | 12% | 13% | 8.37 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid CF +1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Granada |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yan Eteki · Granada |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Domingos Quina · Granada |
| 75' | ⚽ | Álvaro Odriozola · Real Madrid CF |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| ⚽ |
| Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1077.00 | 804.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1666.39 | 1941.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.29 | -7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| league points | 45.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.31 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |