← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, May 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +9% |
| Cadiz win | 19% | 17% | 5.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cadiz −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 59% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 41% | 2.49 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maxime Gonalons · Granada |
| 74' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 77' | 🟨 | Quini · Granada |
| 87' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 87' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 87' | 🟥 | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ángel Montoro · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aarón Escandell · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1066.00 |
| 1857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1629.86 | 1535.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.07 | 20.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.15 | — |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |