← Primera Division 2020-21 · Thu, Apr 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 80% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.26 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 7% | 4% | 15.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Barcelona −2 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +8% |
| Under | 37% | 29% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 8' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Clément Lenglet · Getafe CF |
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Soufiane Chakla · FC Barcelona |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 264.00 |
| 1694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1897.38 | 1580.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.95 | -3.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.46 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 65.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 12.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.46 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 26.22 |
| state index | 1.69 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.55 | -1.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |