← Primera Division 2020-21 · Mon, Apr 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 46% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jules Koundé · Sevilla FC |
| 10' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · Sevilla FC |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 23' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 35' | ⚽ | Fernando · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ivan Rakitić · Sevilla FC |
| 74' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 467.00 | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1662.17 | 1867.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.36 | -3.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.89 |
| league points | 37.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 8.29 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 28.92 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |