← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 40% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| Real Madrid CF win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| FC Barcelona +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 13' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 28' | ⚽ | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | Óscar Mingueza · FC Barcelona |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Casemiro · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 771.00 |
| 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1870.65 | 1906.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.45 | 38.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 63.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 25.92 |
| state index | 1.56 | 2.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |