← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 21% | 28% | 4.75 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Barcelona +0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 44% | 2.61 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand