← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.01 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 19% | 19% | 5.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 60% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 40% | 3.01 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Iván Marcone · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Soufiane Chakla · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Elche CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dani Calvo · Elche CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Elche CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Timor · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1662.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1653.27 | 1548.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.86 | 4.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.60 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.26 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.97 | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |