← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.14 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 19% | 17% | 5.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.72 | value: +5% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 30' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 40' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Augusto Solari · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Marco Asensio · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 444.00 | 750.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1654.82 | 1930.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.76 | 5.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| league points | 34.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 28.57 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |