← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medié
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 22% | 20% | 4.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Valladolid −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.16 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Shon Weissman · Valladolid |
| 34' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sergi Guardiola · Valladolid |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lucas Olaza · Valladolid |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fabián Orellana · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Facundo Ferreyra · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joseph Aidoo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jawad El Yamiq · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jeison Murillo · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 485.00 | 1064.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1648.81 | 1586.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | -25.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.39 | — |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |