← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 36% | 43% | 2.73 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Granada win | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Granada +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 36% | 2.87 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Jesús Vallejo · Granada |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 37' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · CA Osasuna |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Granada |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 50' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 63' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · CA Osasuna |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · CA Osasuna |
| 77' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 88' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 🟨 |
| Facundo Roncaglia · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟥 | Facundo Roncaglia · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 968.00 | 968.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1623.39 | 1694.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.62 | -1.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |