← Primera Division 2020-21 · Mon, Jan 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 46% | 57% | 2.16 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 33% | 22% | 3.00 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 22% | 21% | 4.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Elche CF +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 60% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Raúl Guti · Elche CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marc Cucurella · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Iván Marcone · Elche CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Iván Marcone · Elche CF |
| 52' | 🟥 | Iván Marcone · Elche CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nino · Elche CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Emiliano Rigoni · Elche CF |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1075.00 | 1593.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1552.94 | 1670.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.68 | -13.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.21 | 9.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.47 | 28.16 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |