← Primera Division 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medié
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 34% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +7% |
| Levante UD win | 34% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 7' | 🟥 | Chema · Getafe CF |
| 11' | 🟨 | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 11' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 17' | ⚽ | Dani Gómez · Levante UD |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dani Gómez · Levante UD |
| 51' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 57' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| Jorge de Frutos · Levante UD |
| 77' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 77' | 🟥 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1010.00 | 1556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1580.93 | 1635.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.88 | -27.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.93 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |