← Primera Division 2020-21 · Thu, Oct 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 57% | 64% | 1.74 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 52% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 48% | 3.00 | value: +43% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Carlos Akapo · Cadiz |
| 41' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 48' | 🟨 | Carlos Akapo · Cadiz |
| 48' | 🟥 | Carlos Akapo · Cadiz |
| 54' | 🟨 | Asier Villalibre · Athletic Club |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Unai López · Cadiz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 70' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 70' | 🟥 | Álvaro Negredo · Cadiz |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kenan Kodro · Athletic Club |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 670.00 | 1644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1689.38 | 1523.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.33 | -17.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.02 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 29.81 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |